New poll: How big the bounce? [follow-up]

el ganador

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Friday August 29, 2008 · 1:40 PM PDT

2008/08/29 · 13:40

Two days ago I posited the question - how big do you think the bounce is going to be?

I guessed +10, and out of 212 votes, the consensus guess was +4 to +6

I think things have changed yet again in this race yet again ,so I'm revising to a +12 bounce

Poll

228 votes Show Results

how big will the bounce be?

228 votes Vote Now!

how big will the bounce be?

"negative bounce"

6 votes

zero

2 votes

+1-2

5 votes

+3-4

12 votes

+5-6

30 votes

+7-8

38 votes

+9-10

59 votes

+11-12

37 votes

+13-14

9 votes

+15-16

11 votes

+17-18

6 votes

+19-20

3 votes

greater than +20

10 votes

+10 points - what's your bet?

el ganador

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Wednesday August 27, 2008 · 10:46 PM PDT

2008/08/27 · 22:46

I've watched every day of the DNC so far, practically gavel-to-gavel. And I think several factors are going to come together as real post-convention polling starts rolling in.

I think we're going to get a plus-10 bounce out of this convention.

What do you think?

Poll

212 votes Show Results

How big's the bump?

212 votes Vote Now!

How big's the bump?

less than -5

8 votes

between -5 and -2

1 vote

between -2 and 0

4 votes

zero nada nothing

13 votes

between 0 and +2

25 votes

between +2 and +4

39 votes

between +4 and +6

54 votes

between +6 and +8

30 votes

between +8 and +10

16 votes

between +10 and +15

13 votes

greater than +15

9 votes

President Obama Declares 2016 Chicago Olympics 'Open To The World'

el ganador

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Saturday August 09, 2008 · 7:54 AM PDT

2008/08/09 · 07:54

August 19, 2016--CHICAGO--President Barack Obama welcomed the world to his hometown of Chicago this evening in the spectacular opening to the 31st Olympiad. Declaring the Summer Games "open to the world and its athletes", the games were a bittersweet reminder that Obama's second term is nearing its end.

Widely credited with helping to secure the games for Chicago during his first term in 2009, Obama noted that this represented the return of America "as a symbol of light and hope in the world."

Obama's two terms have been widely hailed as the most successful in modern history, from the international rebuilding effort in Iraq nearing completion to the stellar response to Hurricane Maria in 2011.

(click for more)

Poll

90 votes Show Results

President Obama's Greatest Success

90 votes Vote Now!

President Obama's Greatest Success

landing the 2016 Games for Chicago

4 votes

Internationalizing the rebuilding of Iraq

5 votes

Diplomacy during N Korea fall, Korean reunification

1 vote

Avoiding economic collapse in first term due to Bush debt

33 votes

Investigation & prosecution of Bush war crimes

15 votes

Energy initiative of 2010

12 votes

US Aid during the West Antarctic sea level disaster

2 votes

revitalizing US image at home and abroad

18 votes

What does HRC want? Congress. All of it.

el ganador

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Wednesday June 04, 2008 · 12:53 PM PDT

2008/06/04 · 12:53

SO I was watching the speeches last night with a roomful of friends - Obama supporters all of us. And while we were watching Hillary's speech - which was an excellent "campaign" speech, BTW - if she'd been campaigning like that from the beginning she'd be the nominee - as I was watching that non-concession, FU speech, I was asking the same thing everyone else was:

"What in the hell does she want?"

It bothered me all night - I dreamt about it for god's sake - and this morning it hit me:

She wants Congress. The whole thing.

Poll

106 votes Show Results

Hillary Clinton wants:

106 votes Vote Now!

Hillary Clinton wants:

Veep

16 votes

Sen Maj Leader

15 votes

All of Congress, like ganador says

31 votes

a Supreme Court seat

3 votes

pie

34 votes

"to be left alone..."

7 votes

SUSA: Obama has HUGE lead in VA

el ganador

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Sunday February 10, 2008 · 12:19 AM PST

2008/02/10 · 00:19

Not sure this has been diaried yet - I'm hitting SUSA, and their screaming headline is that "Exclusive Survey Shows Obama, McCain with Big Leads in Virginia Polls".

Clicky for more....

Poll

320 votes Show Results

This SUSA poll

320 votes Vote Now!

This SUSA poll

is good news for Obama

65 votes

is great news for Obama

102 votes

is unbelievable news for Obama

62 votes

is pie

91 votes

SUSA: Washington State for Obama + How To Caucus

el ganador

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Wednesday February 06, 2008 · 9:38 PM PST

2008/02/06 · 21:38

Now that Super Tuesday is behind us - and leaves the race as evenly tied as it could possibly get...I wanted to share some good news with you out of one of the Feb 9th states: my very own Washington.

Poll

330 votes Show Results

On 2/9, Obama wins

330 votes Vote Now!

On 2/9, Obama wins

all three, WA, NE, and LA

273 votes

only WA and NE

12 votes

only WA and LA

16 votes

only LA and NE

5 votes

only LA

3 votes

only WA

5 votes

only NE

2 votes

none of them

3 votes

pie

11 votes

SUPER WEDNESDAY for Barack Obama

el ganador

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Tuesday February 05, 2008 · 9:37 PM PST

2008/02/05 · 21:37

OK - so the day is almost over - a huge day. Hillary will spin claim that she won because she won the big states. Barack's team will spin that they won more states - and rightfully - that when all the delegates are counted that it is essentially a tie (or even ahead).

Let's change the story.

Poll

1333 votes Show Results

Our turkee

1333 votes Vote Now!

Our turkee

makes Obama stronger

1333 votes

Feb 18, 2004: The Day Dean Broke My Heart - In Sympathy To Edwards Folks

el ganador

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Wednesday January 30, 2008 · 1:36 PM PST

2008/01/30 · 13:36

[Author's Note: I have spent the last three months horribly torn between Edwards and Obama - literally almost changing my mind on a daily basis. I am incredibly saddened that JRE had to suspend his campaign today, and while I'm relieved that it makes my strategy much simpler for the WA State caucuses on 2/9...I still hurt for you hardcore Edwards folks]

There are a great many days that are burned into my brain for some reason or another in my life. First Kiss, playing in the mud, the time I almost drowned at the beach, being the officiant at my best friends wedding...

But on this day, the day that John Edwards has suspended his campaign, the one I keep thinking about is from almost exactly four years ago: Feb 18th, 2004 - the day Howard Dean suspended his amazing, game-changing, inspiring, heart-breaking run for the presidency.

Poll

70 votes Show Results

John Edwards and Howard Dean

70 votes Vote Now!

John Edwards and Howard Dean

are great men

15 votes

deserve our thanks

10 votes

are changing America

10 votes

got us to stand up

13 votes

made us believe again

16 votes

both like pie

6 votes

Brokered? "The" Math

el ganador

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Wednesday January 23, 2008 · 10:40 PM PST

2008/01/23 · 22:40

OK, I don't actually mean to have "the Math" in a Rovian sense.

But I'm looking at what we've seen so far in the race, and I'm wondering more and more if we're going to have a brokered convention.

As we approach South Carolina, it looks like BHO might win solidly, which will then mean we go into Feb 5th with 2 wins for Hillary, 2 wins for Barack, and John in 3rd, collecting delegates.

NOTE: Yes, I know we had MI and will have FL before 2/5 - but with no delegates awarded they are meaningless.

So, what, I thought, would it look like on the morning of Feb 6th, if this pattern continues?

Poll

107 votes Show Results

Brokered convention

107 votes Vote Now!

Brokered convention

a certainty, get used to it

7 votes

a distinct possibility

50 votes

possible, but unlikely

40 votes

absolutely never going to happen

6 votes

some kind of sweet, sweet pie

4 votes

Worry over Obama's "fate": a subtle racism

el ganador

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Monday January 21, 2008 · 12:37 PM PST

2008/01/21 · 12:37

Yesterday I read Barack Obama's speech at Ebenezer Baptist in Atlanta, the home congregation of Dr. Martin Luther King, and I wept with hope and joy that someone so compassionate, eloquent, and intelligent is running a strong campaign for the White House.

Today, I read an article in my local paper, the Seattle Times, re-published from the NYT, that examines the idea that people "worry" about the fate that Obama might face as a prominent black leader.

Almost 40 years after King's assassination, the streets that bear his name are alive with hope that Obama may fulfill King's dream, but also fraught with fear that he could suffer King's fate. Each step of the way, Obama's progress is being measured against an ingrained belief that, in the end, "America" won't let a black man become president.

It made me furious.

Poll

81 votes Show Results

Worry over Obama's "fate" is

81 votes Vote Now!

Worry over Obama's "fate" is

real, and an obstacle

5 votes

real, but not stopping him or me

40 votes

hyperbole

3 votes

a way of tearing him down through "concern trolling"

22 votes

just a media storyline

4 votes

not a concern, America is really beyond that

1 vote

some kind of pie

6 votes

Nevada results

el ganador

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Saturday January 19, 2008 · 11:59 AM PST

2008/01/19 · 11:59

Am I the only one compulsively watching this site refresh?

http://www.nvdems08.com/

11:55 (approx)
STATEWIDE TOTAL (delegates)
Clinton 1 16.67%
Obama 5 83.33%
Total precincts reporting 0.34%

el ganador

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Wednesday January 09, 2008 · 12:18 PM PST

2008/01/09 · 12:18

I just stumbled across this Florida poll on Pollster:

POLL: Datamar Florida Primary

A new Datamar automated survey of likely primary voters in Florida (conducted 1/5 through 1/7) finds:

* Among 541 likely Democratic primary voters, Sen. Hillary Clinton leads Sen. Barack Obama (40% to 28%) in a statewide primary; former Sen. JOhn Edwards trails at 19%.

* Among 481 likely Republican primary voters, former Gov. Mike Huckabee runs at 24%, former Gov. Mitt Romney at 20%, Sen. John McCain at 18%, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani at 16%, former Sen. Fred Thompson at 9%.

* All other candidates receive less than five percent each. The margin of sampling error is 4.2% for likely Democratic primary voters and 4.5% for likely Republican primary voters.

Poll

112 votes Show Results

Brokered convention

112 votes Vote Now!

Brokered convention

never gonna happen

32 votes

might happen and will be a disaster for us

11 votes

might happen, and will be rad, just like on West Wing

50 votes

is a certainty

6 votes

is delicious, delicious pie

13 votes

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